The casino will pay true odds on this second bet, based n the probability of the point number coming up. These true odds bets reduce the house's edge in craps to less that 1 percent. Next to blackjack played with extreme discipline, this is the best bet you'll have in casino. The odds on slot machines are terrible. How often do you win at Slots in a casino? There is no mathematical approach to predict when a Slot is about to pay and how often you can win at Slots. How to pick a machine with the best odds of winning. The Random Number Generator (RNG) makes every spin independent from all the ones that preceded it and the ones that will follow. The bet you place will significantly impact your odds of winning. If you want the best odds stick to Pass/Come and Don’t Pass/Don’t Come bets. Laying the Odds is another bet in craps where the house doesn’t have an edge. Place bets, Place to Lose bets, Buys, Lays and Hard bets have a slight house edge depending on the number rolled. Roulette Odds: Chance of Winning 1 in 36 up to Approx. The odds are about the same on roulette if you stick to bets on red/black or odds/evens.
Slot machine odds used to be easy to calculate. When you’re dealing with three reels, ten symbols on each reel, and a limited pay table, then it’s just a simple math problem. But the rise of electromechanical slot machines and (later) video slots added some complexity to the situation.
How Probability Works
Probability has two meanings. One is the likelihood of whether or not something will happen. The other is the branch of mathematics that calculates that likelihood. To understand the odds as they relate to slot machines (or any other gambling game), you have to understand the basic math behind probability.
Don’t worry though. The math isn’t hard. Probability involves addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, all of which you learned in middle school.
The first principle of probability is that every event has a probability of between 0 and 1. If something has no chance of ever happening, then its probability is 0. If something will always happen, no matter what, then its probability is 1.
Probability is, therefore, always a fraction. It can be expressed in multiple ways, as a decimal, as a fraction, as a percentage, and as odds.
A simple example is a coin flip. The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin is 50%. That’s common sense, but how is it determined mathematically?
You simply take the total number of possible outcomes, and divide the outcome you’re trying to determine the probability of it by that number. There are two possibilities when flipping a coin, heads or tails, but only one of them is heads. That’s 1 divided by 2, which can be expressed as ½, 50%, 0.5, or 1 to 1 odds.
Odds are expressed as the number of ways something won’t happen versus the number of ways that something will happen. For example, if you’re rolling a single six-sided die, and you want to know the odds of rolling a six, you’re looking at 5 to 1 odds. There are five ways to roll something other than a six, and only one way of rolling a six.
When you want to determine the probability of multiple things happening, you use addition or multiplication, depending on whether you want to determine whether one OR the other event will occur, or whether you want to determine whether one event AND the other event will occur.
If you’re looking at an “OR” question, you add the probabilities together. If you’re looking at an “AND” question, you multiply the probabilities by each other.
So if you want to know what the probability of rolling two dice and having one or the other come up with a six, you add the probabilities together. 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6, which is rounded down to 1/3.
If you want to know the probability of rolling two dice and having BOTH of them come up six, you multiply the probabilities. 1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36.
How Slot Machine Odds USED to Work
Early slot machines were mechanical devices. They had three metal reels that had ten possible stops each.
To calculate the odds of a single symbol appearing on a reel, you just divide the one symbol by the total number of potential outcomes. So if you had one cherry on a reel, your odds of hitting that cherry were 1/10, or 10%.
To calculate the odds of getting three cherries, you multiple 1/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 and get 1/1000, or 0.1%.
If the odds of hitting that symbol are the same as all the others, then you have 10 possible jackpots you can win, which means that your chances of winning SOMETHING are 10/1000, which is 1%.
Most people wouldn’t play a slot machine that lost 99 times out of 100, though, so slot machine designers added additional, smaller prizes for getting two symbols out of three for certain symbols. And as long as they paid out less in prizes than the odds of hitting those jackpots, then those slots are guaranteed to make a profit in the long run.
For example, if a prize for hitting three cherries was $1000, you’d be playing a break-even game, but if the prize were $750, it’s easy to see how the casino would be guaranteed a profit. The difference between the odds of winning and the payout odds is where the casino makes its money.
How Slot Machines Work Now
Modern slot machines use a computer program called a random number generator to determine the outcomes of the various spins of the reels. This creates an imaginary reel with a number of symbols limited only by the program in question.
A mechanical slot machine with 256 symbols per reel would be huge, too large to play, much less to build. But a computer can create an imaginary reel with 256 symbols per reel and take up no more space than an iPod Shuffle.
To make things even more interesting and entertaining, slot machine designers can program different probabilities for each symbol to come up. Most symbols might come up once every 256 spins, but others might come up twice as often, while still others might only come up half as often.
This enables slot machine designers and casinos to offer slot machine games with far larger jackpots than they were able to when they were limited by mechanical reels. And they’re able to offer these large jackpots and still generate a healthy profit.
How Does This Relate to Payback Percentages?
The payback percentage is the amount of money that the slot machine is designed to pay out over an enormous number of spins. This number is almost always less than 100%. The difference between 100% and the payback percentage is the house edge, and that’s where the casino makes its profits.
A simple example can help illustrate how this works. Suppose you have a slot machine with three reels with ten symbols on each, and it only pays out when three cherries hit. The odds of winning that jackpot, as we determined earlier, is 1/1000.
If we set the jackpot as $900, and charge $1 per bet, the payout percentage for that game will be 90%, or $900/$1000. Of course, no one would play a slots game which only paid out once in every 1000 spins, which is why there are various smaller payouts programmed in.
There’s no way to tell what the payback percentage on a particular game is unless you have access to the par sheet for that machine. Casino management has that information, but players never have access to that info.
The best slot machine odds are almost always found in real casinos. If you see slot machines in an airport or a bar, be aware that the payback percentages on those games is much lower than you’ll see in a real casino.
Who doesn’t want to improve their chances of winning in the casino?
I know I do.
No one can teach you a method of making sure you’ll walk away from the casino a winner every time. That’s an unrealistic expectation that not even advantage gamblers have.
But you can reduce the amount you’ll lose and increase your chances of winning by making a few either/or choices. I’ve listed 7 of them below.
1 – Play European Roulette Instead of American Roulette
You measure a casino’s advantage over the player with a figure called “the house edge”. That’s a mathematically expected loss per bet expressed as a percentage.
If someone tells you that a game has a 5% house edge, that means you’re expected to lose an average of $5 every time you place a $100 bet. Of course, this is an average over thousands of hands, but as a mathematical concept, it’s a useful way of comparing casino games.
In American roulette, you face 38 different numbers on the roulette wheel. 18 of those numbers are black, 18 are red, and 2 of them are green—the 00 and the 0.
![Odds of winning at casino Odds of winning at casino](/uploads/1/2/5/2/125224520/816466242.gif)
Those two green numbers are where the house gets its edge. A bet on red or black pays off at even odds, but the odds of winning aren’t even. You have 20 ways to lose and 18 ways to win.
Over time, that difference adds up to a 5.26% house edge.
A European style roulette wheel, though, only has 37 numbers. 18 are red, 18 are black, and 1 is green. The bets still have the same payouts, though.
This reduces the house edge for the game from 5.26% to 2.70%.
What does that do to your expected hourly loss?
Let’s say you’re betting $20 per spin, and you’re placing an average of 40 bets per hour. This means you’re putting an average of $800 into action per hour.
Your expected loss on an American roulette wheel is $42.08.
But on a European roulette wheel, your expected loss is only $21.60.
2 – Play Video Poker Instead of Slot Machines
When you’re talking about gambling machines, you talk less about house edge and more about payback percentage. The payback percentage is just the house edge subtracted from 100%. It’s the amount of money you mathematically expect to win back in the long run from a game.
For example, if we say that a slot machine has a payback percentage of 90%, that means you can expect to win back 90% of whatever you gamble in that machine over a long enough time.
But here’s the thing about slot machines:
They don’t list their payback percentages, and there’s no realistic way to guess. We do know that most slot machine games on the Las Vegas Strip pay back at around 92% or so.
But video poker machines, if you play them correctly and choose the games with the best pay tables, pay back much more than that. Even the worst games pay back at 95% or more.
And the best games pay back at 99% or higher.
Best of all, you can determine the payback percentage of a video poker machine based on its pay table. Any respectable video poker site (including our video poker section here), includes common pay tables with their expected payback percentage.
What’s the difference to your bankroll?
Assume you’re playing a slot machine with a 93% payback percentage. You’re making 600 spins per hour at $5 per spin. You’re putting $3000 per hour into action. The casino expects you to lose $210 per hour on that action.
If you’re playing a video poker game with a payback percentage of 99.54% for the same stakes, you’re looking at $3000 in action per hour still.
But your expected loss now is only $13.80.
3 – Master Blackjack Basic Strategy
Blackjack is one of the most popular games in the casino, but if you don’t master basic strategy, you’re probably facing a house edge of 4% or more. Master basic strategy, though, and you can reduce that to between 0.5% and 1% depending on the rules and the table conditions.
What’s basic strategy?
That’s just a fancy way of saying that every possible situation in blackjack has one mathematically best play. For example, you always split aces or 8s. That’s the mathematically best play, and if you make a different decision, the house edge goes up.
What’s the difference between a basic strategy player and someone who’s just winging it?
Let’s assume you’re playing 60 hands per hour for $20 per hand. That’s $1200 per hour in action.
If you’re making a lot of mistakes and ignoring basic strategy, your expected loss per hour is $48.
But if you’re using basic strategy and face a house edge of only 1%, your expected loss per hour is only $12.
Here’s a bonus blackjack tip, too:
Skip the tables where you only get a 6/5 payoff on a natural. That adds almost 2% to the house edge. Insist on playing 3/2 blackjack, or play something else entirely.
4 – Stick with the Simplest Bets at the Craps Table
The number of bets available at the craps table is staggering. The good news is that the bets with the best odds are the easiest bets—the ones at the edges of the table. The inside bets at the craps table come with a much higher edge.
The most basic craps bets are the pass and don’t pass bets. The pass bet is a bet that the shooter will win, and they don’t pass bet is a bet that the shooter will lose.
The shooter loses on the come out roll if she rolls a 2, 3, or 12. She wins on the come out roll if she rolls a 7 or an 11.
If she rolls any other number, a point is set, and she continues to roll the dice until she rolls the point again (winning) or rolls 7 (losing) whichever comes first.
The house edge for the pass bet is 1.41%.
The house edge for the don’t pass bet is 1.36%.
I should point out that even though they don’t pass bet is marginally better, you’ll probably have more fun betting on the pass line. Part of the fun of craps is rooting for the shooter.
I’ll use just one of the proposition bets in the middle of the table as an example of a bet to avoid. The “Any 7” bet pays off at 4 to 1, but the house edge is 16.9%.
Let’s say you’re playing for $10 per roll, and you’re playing at a table where you’re seeing 100 rolls per hour. That means you’re putting $1000 into action every hour.
If you’re betting the pass line, your expected hourly loss is $14.10.
If you’re betting “any seven”, your expected hourly loss is $169.00.
That’s a massive difference.
5 – Always Join the Slots Club
A lot of superstitious players think that if you play with the slots card inserted, your chances of winning go down.
That’s a myth.
This tip almost doesn’t belong here, though, because it makes it sound like you’re more likely to win with the slots club card inserted, but that’s not exactly the case.
What really happens is that the casino measures how much money you’re putting into action per hour so that they can rebate some of it—maybe 0.2%.
What effect does this have on your expected hourly loss?
Let’s look at a hypothetical Jacks or Better video poker player. The house edge is only 0.46%, so if you’re playing 600 hands per hour at $5 per hand, you can expect to lose 0.46% of $3000, or $13.80.
But if you’re getting rewards of 0.2% of your play, you’re getting back $6/hour. That reduces your effective hourly loss to $7.80 per hour.
If you play at a casino which offers double rewards during certain hours, you can eliminate the house edge of even play with a slight margin over the casino.
That’s worth doing.
6 – Take Plenty of Breaks and Play Slowly
This won’t necessarily improve your chances of winning, but it will reduce your expected hourly loss.
Casino Gambling Odds Of Winning Results
You should think of the house edge as a tax on the money that you’re gambling. Every time you place a bet, you pay this tax. That’s not what really happens in the short run, but if you play long enough, that’s exactly what happens.
Let’s look at two slot machine players as examples.
One of them is playing 600 hands per hour at $5 per hand. She’s putting $3000 into action per hour. If the house has an edge of 7%, that player’s expected hourly loss is $210.
The other is only playing 400 hands per hour at $5 per hand. She’s taking her time and taking lots of breaks, so she’s only putting $2000 into action per hour. With the same house edge, she’s only expected to lose $140 per hour.
The slower player might even be having more fun, because she’s probably paying more attention to what she’s doing. I call that mindfulness in action on the casino floor.
7 – Learn to Play the More Complicated Games
Here’s one truism about casino games everyone should know:
The easier the game is to play, the higher the house edge.
Games like Casino War, which require no strategy and are so easy a child could understand them, are best to skip.
Games like blackjack, where strategy plays a big role in how the outcome is determined, offer much better odds.
The house edge for Casino War is 2.33%. The house edge for blackjack is between 0.5% and 1%.
This means you can expect to lose 5 times as much money playing Casino War as you would expect to lose playing blackjack.
The opposite is true of slot machines, though. The more complicated a slot machine game is—more reels, more bonus features, etc.—the higher the house edge has to be to pay for those extra features.
Your best bet with a slot machine is to find one with 3 reels and a flat dollar amount for a jackpot.
Conclusion
Casino games are designed with an unassailable mathematical house edge, but that number varies by game and according to strategy. Your goal as a casino player is to get as much entertainment for your gambling dollar as you can.
The way to do this is to choose the games with the lowest house edge. Go back through the list on this page next time you’re at the casino. This will help you choose games where you will lose money more slowly and have a better chance of walking away a winner.
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